Hello Friends,
I'm on track with my 2015 year predictions on the looming collapse of the Canadian economy.
Please review my blog - Dec-2014 : Rahul's Cafe Canadian
We are looking for a number of signs / indications that resemble a slow motion train wreck.
These are the leading indicators, not in any particular order, as I have discussed before :
1. Collapse in the support prices of the metals, minerals, petroleum & gas.
2. Layoffs in the resources industry aggregating to about 100k workers or more in a short time frame of about 2 years.
3. Collapse / devalue in the exchange rate of the Canadian Dollar vs the US Dollar to about 30% or more during the last 1 year.
4. Decline in the TSX stock market from its all time high in aug-2014 of 15,625 about 1 year ago, about a 12% decline so far. This trend will continue as most blue chip companies post results of falling sales and adopt cost cutting measures.
5. Household debt is at all time high with consumers piling on more unsecured debt as consumers are encouraged by low rates of interest and low monthly payments.
6. Housing Sector has had a mini correction in Alberta due to the large layoffs over there. Home prices are strong in the GTA and Greater Vancouver area, there is a lot of new immigrant first home buys, which are driving the market prices in these areas, however once the impact of layoffs and weaker economy become apparent, this market may start to cool down in the next 1-2 years as well.
Money & Capital are very liquid & in this day & age will move international borders to seek the best returns. Canada is not the "flavour of the month" anymore.
Take a look at the news items, its scary, but that's the hard reality:
I'm on track with my 2015 year predictions on the looming collapse of the Canadian economy.
Please review my blog - Dec-2014 : Rahul's Cafe Canadian
We are looking for a number of signs / indications that resemble a slow motion train wreck.
These are the leading indicators, not in any particular order, as I have discussed before :
1. Collapse in the support prices of the metals, minerals, petroleum & gas.
2. Layoffs in the resources industry aggregating to about 100k workers or more in a short time frame of about 2 years.
3. Collapse / devalue in the exchange rate of the Canadian Dollar vs the US Dollar to about 30% or more during the last 1 year.
4. Decline in the TSX stock market from its all time high in aug-2014 of 15,625 about 1 year ago, about a 12% decline so far. This trend will continue as most blue chip companies post results of falling sales and adopt cost cutting measures.
5. Household debt is at all time high with consumers piling on more unsecured debt as consumers are encouraged by low rates of interest and low monthly payments.
6. Housing Sector has had a mini correction in Alberta due to the large layoffs over there. Home prices are strong in the GTA and Greater Vancouver area, there is a lot of new immigrant first home buys, which are driving the market prices in these areas, however once the impact of layoffs and weaker economy become apparent, this market may start to cool down in the next 1-2 years as well.
Money & Capital are very liquid & in this day & age will move international borders to seek the best returns. Canada is not the "flavour of the month" anymore.
Take a look at the news items, its scary, but that's the hard reality:
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India & the Emerging Markets
As previously discussed in my blog before : India Passes China to Become Fastest-Growing Economy - 2015 trends // Proof of India's rise again...
India is selling like "hot cakes" & will continue to be the "flavour of the month" for the next 5 years.
Everyone is lining up to put their money in where they can have maximum sustained growth for the next 5-10 years.
Canadian Pension Funds are also heading towards India for a higher growth.
If you have a defined benefit pension plan with your company, don't be surprised, if its already invested in India or planning to start investing there now.
Take a look at these news items :
Canada's pension fund ready to invest $2B in affordable housing in ...
CBC.ca-Nov 1, 2015
Canada's pension fund is ready to invest $2 billion in affordable housing in ... and has already committed to invest more than $2 billion in India.
Canada Pension Fund Ready to Invest $2 Bn in Mumbai Housing ...
NDTV-Oct 31, 2015
NDTV-Oct 31, 2015
Explore in depth (169 more articles)
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Opens Investment Office in ...
Marketwired (press release)-Oct 27, 2015
TORONTO, ONTARIO and MUMBAI, INDIA--(Marketwired - Oct. 27, 2015) - Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) announced today ...
'India may attract $6 b from Canadian pension fund in 8 years'
In-Depth-Hindu Business Line-Oct 27, 2015
In-Depth-Hindu Business Line-Oct 27, 2015
Explore in depth (44 more articles)
Canadian pension funds eye Indian infrastructure assets
Livemint-Oct 18, 2015
According to a 15 October survey by EY, India was ranked as the top ... The funds will follow peer Canada Pension Plan Investment Board ...
Canadian pension funds eye Indian infra assets
DEALSTREETASIA-Oct 18, 2015
DEALSTREETASIA-Oct 18, 2015
Explore in depth (2 more articles)
What it takes to grow Canada's national nest egg
Macleans.ca-Oct 28, 2015
In 2011, Canada's pension fund manager invested in a relatively obscure ... told members of a Canada-india business group while in Mumbai.
Canada's CPPIB opens office in India to scout for opportunities
TV Newsroom-Oct 29, 2015
TV Newsroom-Oct 29, 2015
Explore in depth (3 more articles)
Disclaimer : This is not investment advice. Its for educational purposes only.
I'm only providing news & information for the sake of general awareness.
Do your own due diligence before investing.
I'm not liable for any of your investing decisions.
Best Regards,
--
Rahul
Vashisht
